关于铁路行车事故预测的应用研究

本文论述了事故预测对铁路行车安全的重要性,并应用灰色预测模型和概率回归估计法模型研制了预测软件,进行铁路行车事故的宏观及微观预测,为采取有针对性的防范措施提供一个可靠信息。     

智能型地理信息系统（AIGIS）在城市抗震防灾规划中的应用

本文简要介绍地理信息系统GIS的发展概况、主要功能以及在国内外的应用现状.对现有的GIS软件技术加以改进,引进人工神经元网络和模糊综合评判技术,发展了一种智能型的GIS,在我国若干城市的抗震设防区划工作中应用,取得良好的效果。     

PARALLEL DRAINS FROM THE LAPLACE STANDPOINT1

Where natural drainage is inadequate for keeping the water table below the root zone of the crops being grown, drains are often employed to control water table levels. Such drains are commonly installed in parallel lines at depths and spacings adapted to the needs of the area. Formulas used for determining drain spacings are generally based upon Dupuit-Forchheimer concepts. These developments postulate a saturated, permeable aquifer underlying the irrigated area and an impermeable barrier underlying the aquifer. The basic differential equation expresses the requirement that the flow out through the sides of a vertical column of infinitesmal cross sectional area must be supplied by a corresponding drop of the water table at the top of the column. If variations of transmissivity due to variations of water table level are taken into account the second order differential equation obtained is nonlinear. To avoid the mathematical difficulties posed by this nonlinearity it is customary to neglect the effects of changes of transmissivity due to changes of water table levels. This imposes a restriction that the formulas derived from these linearized differential equations suffer a loss of accuracy if the change of water table levels becomes a considerable portion of the initial saturated depth. Offsetting these difficulties is the tactical advantage that the linearized differential equations are of types long studied in older developments concerned with conduction of heat in solids. The advantages conferred by the possibilities for exploiting the results of investigations in the older discipline are many. An alternative approach is based upon a requirement that there can be no accumulation of water in any elementary cubical volume located in the zone of complete saturation below the water table. The differential equation obtained on this basis, if the aquifer is homogeneous and isotropic, is the one which bears the name of Laplace. It will be the purpose of this paper to explore the possibilities afforded by this approach for evaluating the flow to parallel drains and to compare the results with those obtainable by the Dupuit-Forchheimer method.     

INTERBASIN TRANSFERS: DO WE NEED THEM?'

ABSTRACT
Three main issues are discussed: the demands for additional water stemming from population dispersion; supply alternatives to large-scale interbasin transfers; and the displacement of agriculture from nonprofit regions. It is concluded that population dispersion is unlikely to increase aggregate water demands; that large additional supplies are available from other sources at lesser costs; and that a very likely consequence of large-scale transfers will be the displacement of agriculture in other parts of the country.     

SOME CONJUNCTIVE DESALTING STUDIES EN THE UNITED KINGDOM1

ABSTRACT .Operating rule procedures are developed for the optimal use of desalination in conjunction with surface water impoundments. Results obtained from the use of hill-climbing and dynamic programming methods are compared. Benefits to be obtained from the integrated use of desalination are demonstrated through a case study for the Barcelona area of Spain.     

DESIGN OF DESALTING PLANTS FOR CONJUNCTIVE OPERATION1

ABSTRACT The selection of an evaporator design must reflect the balancing of captial cost (primarily in heat exchanger surface and vessels) against operating cost (primarily steam cost) to achieve minimum cost. In a conjunctive plant the tendency is to select a low-capital cost, high-operating cost plant. In addition, it is advantageous to use a high-capacity plant which needs to be operated much less of the time than a plant which is sized just at the needed rate. For example, in the study of a possible system to satisfy a future increase of 450 MGD in water supply to New York Qty, a plant of 750 MGD capacity was selected as optimum. This plant, of the advanced VTE-MSF process type, would have a performance ratio of 9 lb product/1000 Btu as compared to 10-13 normally used for base-loaded plants. Steam would be supplied by a multi-unit dual-purpose nuclear power plant. The most economical type of energy supply would be “interruptible”; the steam would be used by a low pressure turbine to generate electricity during periods of peak electrical demand but would be available to the desalting plant at other times. The low pressure turbine would be available as spinning reserve during desalting plant operation. It is estimated that the desalting plant would have a load factor of 27 per cent over its life.     

PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR AQUIFER EVALUATION1

ABSTRACT A discussion of the various tools and techniques available for evaluation of aquifers is presented. Data for evaluation studies can be obtained from laboratory experiments, geological maps, well logs and field studies. Such data can be used in analytic or electric analog models to determine the sustained yield of the aquifer under various operating conditions.     

DETERMINING SIGNIFICANCE AND PRECISION OF ESTIMATED PARAMETERS FOR RUNOFF FROM SEMIARID WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT Significant parameters for predicting thunderstorm runoff from small semiarid watersheds are determined using data from the Walnut Gulch watershed in southern Arizona. Based on these data, thunderstorm rainfall is dominant over watershed parameters for predicting runoff from multiple linear regression equations. In some cases antecedent moisture added significantly to the models. A technique is developed for estimating precision of predicted values from multiple linear regression equations. The technique involves matrix methods in estimating the variance of mean predicted values from a regression equation. The estimated variance of the mean predicted value is then used to estimate the variance of an individual predicted value. A computer program is developed to implement these matrix methods and to form confidence limits on predicted values based on both a normality assumption and the Chebyshev inequality.     

PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE1

To aid in planning and design of additional flood protection on the Lower Rio Grande, the Hydroraeteorological Branch prepared a probable maximum precipitation study for the International Boundary and Water Commission (United States and Mexico) and the Republic of Mexico. Five drainages from 2,000 to over 17,000 square miles in area between Falcon and Anzalduas Dams including Rio San Juan and Rio Alamo in Mexico are the areas of concern. The great rains of hurricane Beulah, September 19–24, 1967 verified that additional protection is needed. Procedures for estimating probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are described. A particular problem was to estimate rainfall potential for the Sierra Madre Oriental in Rio San Juan and Alamo drainages. These mountains form a north-south windward-facing slope and barrier of over 7000 feet in elevation. A detailed study was made of rains from hurricane Beulah. The storm produced the greatest known rain depths in North America for 50,000 square miles or greater, and durations longer than 48 hours.     

TEODORO ARDEMANS PIONEER WATER-SUPPLY ENGINEER OF SPAIN1

ABSTRACT: Teodoro Ardemans, first post-Renaissance water expert of Spain, recognized problems of ground-water contamination, influence of minerals on water quality, and mutual interference between closely spaced wells. He is also noted for his achievements in architecture and the writing of the first comprehensive building code for Madrid.